Trader Gu's Wave Report – April 2025

Monthly Newsletter - April 2025
Structured Analysis - High-Conviction Trading - Built for Part-Time Traders

⚡️ TL;DR – Quick Snapshot

👀 Developing Trades: $PYPL, $TSLA
🧲 Approaching Key Levels: $GOOG, $NKE
🔭 HTF Watchlist: $MSFT, $AAPL
🌕 Bonus Short Idea: $WMT

👋 Hey traders,

Welcome to the first edition of Trader Gu’s Wave Report — a monthly breakdown of how I’m evaluating the market, step by step.

Inside, you’ll find the tickers on my watchlist, the Areas of Interest (AOI) I’m looking to trade and my thought process of what to expect in order to execute.

Trading, much like surfing, isn’t about chasing every move. You sit. You scan the horizon. You wait. Then, when the right wave rolls in — you execute with conviction.

Let’s take a look at what’s building for April 👇

👀 Developing Trades - Inside my Area of Interest (AOI)

These are potential setups building in my area of interest and the ones that I am tracking on the daily and weekly time frames for potential entries.

$PYPL – Daily Reversal Structure Forming

One of the most interesting charts in the coming weeks. $PYPL (PayPal) is well-positioned in my high-conviction area of interest. Technically, we’re still in a bullish market structure on the monthly timeframe, and I’m looking for a trade idea to develop in this zone, as I believe we could see a sharp reaction at around $63, which aligns with the weekly order block $60-$62.

What I’d like to see is a move down toward the $63 level, tapping into the weekly order block, and then starting to build a bullish market structure on the daily, followed by confirmation on the weekly timeframe.

$PYPL - Monthly chart

$PYPL - Weekly chart

$TSLA – To retrace or break down?

Tesla is one of my favorite stocks to trade - and also one of my best-performing trades during 2024. Now, we’re finally back retesting the monthly order block at $273–$263, where price previously showed an explosive reaction to the downside, followed by a retracement back into that zone.

The monthly close will be key.
If we close above the mid-level of the order block at $256, this could mark a local bottom, setting us up for a move to retest the bearish monthly order block at $372.

However, a bearish monthly close could shift the narrative. In that case, I’d expect a liquidity sweep at $217, possibly followed by the early stages of a bullish market structure forming on the weekly.

Exciting times!

$TSLA - Monthly chart

$TSLA - Weekly chart

$TSLA - Daily chart

🧲 Approaching my Area of Interest (AOI)

Tickers approaching my areas of interest often exhibit sharp, volatile reactions. Sometimes, price breaks down entirely. Other times, it begins to form a structure that can evolve into a trade over days, weeks even months.

When price reaches a high-conviction zone, I often consider aggressive entries—not because the setup is fully confirmed, but to ensure I’m positioned early at key levels while the trade thesis has time to develop.

$GOOG – Ready for retracement

Google is approaching a previously retested monthly order block - setting up for a second retest. It’s likely we’ll take out the liquidity resting below the $148 level, which also would invalidate the most recent order block.

I’ll be watching closely for potential setups within the broader monthly range between $150 and $143. That said, if this level fails to hold, we could see a deeper breakdown toward significantly lower prices. Patience and clear structure will be key here.

$GOOG - Monthly chart

$NKE – Heading for Covid Low?

$NKE Nike has been on an extreme bearish move since the peaks in 2021, and currently we are just positioned right above the COVID-19 lows where we had an explosive reaction during March 2020. This can go many ways, but currently looks like we are heading to take the COVID low liquidity and I could see price have an explosive reaction or move further south doing a proper retest at the monthly order block at $53.

$NKE - Monthly chart

🔭 Long-Term Watchlist

These are tickers I’m monitoring on the monthly or higher timeframes. While they may currently be far from my area of interest, I track them to stay aware of how price evolves as it approaches key levels. Monitoring on the higher timeframes allows me to prepare well in advance and be ready to position myself when trade opportunities emerge.

Long-term positions require long-term planning. That includes not just the technical setup, but also making sure I have capital available to allocate when the time is right.

$MSFT – HTF Move to the Downside

Microsoft is making moves heading towards high probability level retesting the order block at $330-$340. This might take some weeks or months to reach, but if we get there, I will monitor the lower timeframes for high-conviction trade. Microsoft is one of those stocks where I would I like to be positioned for the long term.

$MSFT - Monthly chart

$AAPL – Possibly confirmed Bearish Monthly Structure

Still waiting on the monthly close to confirm a bearish monthly structure on $AAPL.
If confirmed, $195 becomes a high-probability target as it’s the 0.618 fibonacci level and perfectly lines up with the breakout of the previous range.

That said, as an OB trader, my real focus is the $170–$180 monthly order block. That’s where I’ll be watching for a trade setup or aggressive entry. 👀

$AAPL - Monthly chart

🌕 Bonus - Short sell opportunity

$WMT (Walmart) looks like it’s heading into a tough few months and possibly even years. The bearish monthly order block at $92-$96 looks interesting for a high-conviction short.

$WMT - Monthly chart

💡 Final Thought: Let the Wave Come to You

As a part-time trader, my biggest edge is knowing when not to trade.

This Wave Report exists to help me - and hopefully you - stay focused on the few, high-conviction setups that matter.

We don’t need a dozen trades. We just need a few good ones, executed well.

Until next month,
– Trader Gu

🔧 Want to go deeper?

If you’re looking to refine your own trading process, I’ve built a free toolbox with the exact tools, workflows, and strategy templates I use as a part-time trader.

→ Explore the The Part-Time Trader’s Toolbox:
Tools, Strategies & Insights for High-Conviction Trading 🧲

👇 Let’s Trade Notes

What setups are on your radar this month?
Drop a comment below or send me a message on X - I’d love to hear what you’re watching.

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